A mere 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
